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Downloadable Papers (sorted by date)

See the top 20 books referenced/cited in these (below listed) papers.

I've put a gray background on the top five most browsed papers in this category.   (Oct-1)

Aggregate and Firm-level Measures of Systemic Risk from a Structural Model of Default
by Alexander Reyngold of Moody's Analytics,
Shnyra Ksenia of Moody's Analytics, and
Roger Stein of MIT Laboratory for Financial Engineering
(1620K PDF) -- 35 pages -- June 13, 2013

Informationally Dynamized Gaussian Copula
by Stéphane Crépey of University of Evry, France,
Monique Jeanblanc of University of Evry, France, and
Dominique Wu of University of Evry, France
(721K PDF) -- 28 pages -- April 22, 2013

A Model for Dependent Defaults and Pricing Contingent Claims with Counterparty Risk
by Dariusz Gatarek of Unicredit, and
Juliusz Jabłecki of National Bank of Poland
(1146K PDF) -- 27 pages -- April 2013

On Multi-Particle Brownian Survivals and the Spherical Laplacian
by Bannur S. Balakrishna of Unaffiliated
(443K PDF) -- 17 pages -- February 18, 2013

Dynamic Implied Correlation Modeling and Forecasting in Structured Finance
by Sebastian Löhr of Leibniz University of Hannover,
Olga Mursajew of Leibniz University of Hannover,
Daniel Rösch of Leibniz University of Hannover, and
Harald Scheule of University of Technology, Sydney
(215K PDF) -- 23 pages -- June 28, 2012

Systemic Risk Contributions: A credit portfolio approach
by Natalia Puzanova of Deutsche Bundesbank, and
Klaus Düllmann of Deutsche Bundesbank
(477K PDF) -- 34 pages -- May 21, 2012

Consistent Single- and Multi-step Sampling of Multivariate Arrival Times: A characterization of self-chaining copulas
by Damiano Brigo of King's College, London, and
Kyriakos Chourdakis of King's College, London
(215K PDF) -- 23 pages -- May 1, 2012

Default Clustering in Large Portfolios: Typical events
by Kay Giesecke of the Stanford University,
Kostas Spiliopoulos of the Brown University, and
Richard Sowers of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
(385K PDF) -- 33 pages -- March 4, 2012

Exploring the Sources of Default Clustering
by Shahriar Azizpour of Stanford University,
Kay Giesecke of Stanford University, and
Gustavo Schwenkler of Stanford University
(2.691K PDF) -- 28 pages -- January 10, 2012

Default and Systemic Risk in Equilibrium
by Agostino Capponi of the Purdue University, and
Martin Larsson of the Cornell University
(480K PDF) -- 42 pages -- December 23, 2011

A Hierarchical Model of Tail Dependent Asset Returns for Assessing Portfolio Credit Risk
by Natalia Puzanova of Deutsche Bundesbank
(711K PDF) -- 56 pages -- December 2011

A Hierarchical Archimedean Copula for Portfolio Credit Risk Modelling
by Natalia Puzanova of Deutsche Bundesbank
(570K PDF) -- 33 pages -- November 2011

The Lehman Brothers Effect and Bankruptcy Cascades
by Pawe l. Sieczka of Warsaw University of Technology,
Didier Sornette of University of Geneva, and
Janusz A. Hołyst of Warsaw University of Technology
(594K PDF) -- 13 pages -- September 29, 2011

CoVaR
by Tobias Adrian of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, and
Markus K. Brunnermeier of the Princeton University
(350K PDF) -- 44 pages -- September 15, 2011

Systemic Risk Diagnostics: Coincident indicators and early warning signals
by Bernd Schwaab of European Central Bank,
Siem Jan Koopman of VU University Amsterdam & Tinbergen Institute, and
André Lucas of Tinbergen Institute & VU University Amsterdam
(570K PDF) -- 33 pages -- August 30, 2011

Empirical Estimation of Default and Asset Correlation of Large Corporates and Banks in India
by Arindam Bandyopadhyay of National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Pune, India, and
Sonali Ganguly of National Institute of Bank Management (NIBM), Pune, India
(415K PDF) -- 27 pages -- August 2011

Derivatives and Credit Contagion in Interconnected Networks
by Sebastian Heise of the Yale University, and
Reimer Kühn of the King's College London
(380K PDF) -- 27 pages -- July 25, 2011

Financial Sector Linkages and the Dynamics of Bank and Sovereign Credit Spreads
by René Kallestrup of Copenhagen Business SchooL,
David Lando of Copenhagen Business SchooL, and
Agatha Murgoci of Copenhagen Business SchooL
(364K PDF) -- 40 pages -- July 12, 2011

Lévy Subordinator Model: A two parameter model of default dependency
by B.S. Balakrishna - Unaffiliated, India
(667K PDF) -- 39 pages -- June 28, 2011

Credit Contagion and Risk Management with Multiple Non-ordered Defaults
by Younes Kchia of the Centre de Mathématiques Appliquées, and
Martin Larsson of the Cornell University
(433K PDF) -- 22 pages -- June 8, 2011

Volatility, Correlation and Tails for Systemic Risk Measurement
by Christian T. Brownlees of the New York University, and
Robert Engle of the New York University
(1,069K PDF) -- 37 pages -- June 2011

Modeling Credit Contagion via the Updating of Fragile Beliefs
by Luca Benzoni of Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago,
Pierre Collin-Dufresne of Columbia University,
Robert S. Goldstein of University of Minnesota, and
Jean Helwege of University of South Carolina
(1128K PDF) -- 42 pages -- February 28, 2011

A Comparative Analysis of Correlation Approaches in Finance
by Claudio Albanese of the Independent Consultant at Level 3 Finance,
David Li of the China International Capital Corporation, Ltd,
Edgar Lobachevskiy of the Alphametrix, and
Gunter Meissner of the University of Hawaii
(1072K PDF) -- 52 pages -- January 10, 2011

Analyzing Systemic Risk with Financial Networks: An application during a financial crash
by Saltoglu Burak of the Bogazici University, and
Yenilmez Taylan of the Tinbergen Institute
(535K PDF) -- 34 pages -- November 14, 2010

Exact and Efficient Simulation of Correlated Defaults
by Kay Giesecke of Stanford University,
Hossein Kakavand of the Perot Group,
Mohammad Mousavi of Stanford University, and
Hideyuki Takada of Mizuho-DL Financial Technology
(530K PDF) -- 29 pages -- November 2010

À la Carte of Correlation Models: Which one to choose?
by Harry Zheng of the Imperial College of London
(141K PDF) -- 12 pages -- October 19, 2010

Finding Systemically Important Financial Institutions around the Global Credit Crisis: Evidence from credit default swaps
by Jian Yang of the University of Colorado Denver, and
Yinggang Zhou of the Chinese University of Hong Kong
(165K PDF) -- 54 pages -- September 16, 2010

Premia for Correlated Default Risk
by Shahriar Azizpour of Stanford University, and
Kay Giesecke of Stanford University
(962K PDF) -- 31 pages -- September 11, 2010

Modeling Frailty-correlated Defaults using many Macroeconomic Covariates
by Siem Jan Koopman of the VU University Amsterdam & Tinbergen Institute,
André Lucas of the VU University Amsterdam & Tinbergen Institute & Duisenberg School of Finance, and
Bernd Schwaab of the European Central Bank
(646K PDF) -- 37 pages -- August 26, 2010

Macro, Frailty, and Contagion Effects in Defaults: Lessons from the 2008 credit crisis
by Siem Jan Koopman of VU University Amsterdam & Tinbergen Institute,
André Lucas of VU University Amsterdam & Tinbergen Institute & Duisenberg school of finance, and
Bernd Schwaab of European Central Bank
(794K PDF) -- 36 pages -- August 24, 2010

Lévy Subordinator Model of Default Dependency
by BS Balakrishna of unaffiliated
(368K PDF) -- 16 pages -- July 22, 2010

Understanding the Effect of Concentration Risk in the Banks' Credit Portfolio: Indian cases
by Arindam Bandyopadhyay of the National Institute of Bank Management, Pune, India
(612K PDF) -- 29 pages -- July 2010

Systemic Risk in a Network Model of Interbank Markets with Central Bank Activity
by Co-Pierre George of the Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena, and
Jenny Poschmann of the Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena
(535K PDF) -- 34 pages -- May 30, 2010

Too Interconnected To Fail: Financial contagion and systemic risk in network model of CDS and other credit enhancement obligations of US banks
by Sheri Markose of the University of Essex,
Simone Giansante of the University of Essex,
Mateusz Gatkowski of the University of Essex, and
Ali Rais Shaghaghi of the University of Essex
(1,264K PDF) -- 60 pages -- April 21, 2010

Corporate Bond Defaults are Consistent with Conditional Independence
by Florian Kramer of Allianz Investment Management SE, and
Gunter Löffler of Ulm University
(294K PDF) -- 31 pages -- April 2010

Dynamic Factor Copula Model
by Ken Jackson of the University of Toronto,
Alex Kreinin of Algorithmics, Inc., and
Wanhe Zhang of the University of Toronto
(186K PDF) -- 23 pages -- March 7, 2010

An Implied Default Dependency Model of a Credit Portfolio based on the Number of Defaults
by Tomoaki Shouda of Hitotsubashi University
(307K PDF) -- 19 pages -- February 28, 2010

Correlation in Credit Risk Changes
by Xiaoling Pu of Kent State University, and
Xinlei Zhao of the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency
(206K PDF) --41 pages -- February 2, 2010

An Extension of Davis and Lo's Contagion Model
by Didier Rullière of Université Lyon 1,
Diana Dorobantu of Université Lyon 1, and
Areski Cousin of Université Lyon 1
(445K PDF) -- 22 pages -- February 1, 2010

Clustered Defaults
by Jin-Chuan Duan of the National University of Singapore
(371K PDF) -- 31 pages -- December 17, 2009

The Effects of Default Correlation on Corporate Bond Credit Spreads
by Bill Bobey of the University of Toronto
(236K PDF) -- 47 pages -- November 2009

On Correlation and Default Clustering in Credit Markets
by Antje Berndt of Carnegie Mellon University,
Peter Ritchken of Case Western Reserve University, and
Zhiqiang Sun of Fifth Third Asset Management
(738K PDF) -- 53 pages -- October 25, 2009

Frailty Correlated Default
by Darrell Duffie of Stanford University,
Andreas Eckner of the Bank of America,
Guillaume Horel of the Bank of America, and
Leandro Saita of Barclays Capital
(216K PDF) -- 35 pages -- October 2009

Properties of Hierarchical Archimedean Copulas
by Ostap Okhrin of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin,
Yarema Okhrin of the University of Bern, and
Wolfgang Schmid of the European University Viadrina
(498K PDF) -- 50 pages -- March 5, 2009

Large Portfolio Losses: A dynamic contagion model
by Paolo Dai Pra of the University of Padova,
Wolfgang J. Runggaldier of the University of Padova,
Elena Sartori of the University of Padova, and
Marco Tolotti of Bocconi University
(652K PDF) -- 50 pages -- March 4, 2008

Cross-Border Bank Contagion In Europe
by Reint Gropp of the European Business School & the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW),
Marco Lo Duca of the European Central Bank, and
Jukka Vesala of the Financial Supervision Authority of Finland (Fin-FSA)
(804K PDF) -- 43 pages -- March 2009

Multivariate Extremes and the Aggregation of Dependent Risks: Examples and counter-examples
by Paul Embrechts of ETH Zurich,
Dominik D. Lambrigger of ETH Zurich, and
Mario V. Wüthrich of ETH Zurich
(509K PDF) -- 28 pages -- February 12, 2009

Multi-Scale Time-changed Birth Processes for Pricing Multi-name Credit Derivatives
by Erhan Bayraktar of the University of Michigan, and
Bo Yang of the University of Michigan
(303K PDF) -- 23 pages -- February 12, 2009

Double t Copula Pricing of Structured Credit Products: Practical aspects of a trustworthy implementation
by Frédéric D. Vrins of ING Wholesale Bank
(1,448K PDF) -- 14 pages -- February 2009

Heterogeneous Credit Portfolios and the Dynamics of the Aggregate Losses
by Paolo Dai Pra of the Università di Padova, and
Marco Tolotti of the Università Bocconi
(378K PDF) -- 35 pages -- December 23, 2008

Graphical Models for Correlated Defaults
by I. Onur Filiz of the University of California, Berkeley,
Xin Guo of the University of California, Berkeley,
Jason Morton of the University of California, Berkeley, and
Bernd Sturmfels of the University of California, Berkeley
(866K PDF) -- 30 pages -- September 21, 2008

On Correlation Effects and Default Clustering in Credit Models
by Antje Berndt of Carnegie Mellon University,
Peter Ritchken of Case Western Reserve University, and
Zhiqiang Sun of Case Western Reserve University
(902K PDF) -- 57 pages -- September 2008

Correlation in Corporate Defaults: Contagion or conditional independence?
by David Lando of the Copenhagen Business School, and
Mads Stenbo Nielsen of the Copenhagen Business School
(620K PDF) -- 41 pages -- August 7, 2008

Conditional Loss Estimation Using a South African Global Error Correcting Macroeconometric Model
by Albert H. De Wet of FirstRand Bank, South Africa,
Reneé Van Eyden of the University of Pretoria, and
Rangan Gupta of the University of Pretoria
(287K PDF) -- 32 pages -- July 2008

Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk
by Philippe Jorion of the University of California, Irvine, and
Gaiyan Zhang of the University of Missouri at St. Louis
(1,076K PDF) -- 47 pages -- July 2008

Are Default Correlations Time Dependent? A Bayesian approach
by Christina R. Niethammer of the University of Konstanz
(668K PDF) -- 37 pages -- June 30, 2008

Default Correlations and the Effect of Estimation Errors on Risk Figures
by Christina R. Niethammer of the University of Konstanz, and
Ludger Overbeck of the University of Giessen
(304K PDF) -- 30 pages -- June 18, 2008

Time-changed Birth Processes and Multi-name Credit Derivatives
by Xiaowei Ding of Stanford University,
Kay Giesecke of Stanford University, and
Pascal I. Tomecek of J.P. Morgan Securities
(795K PDF) -- 32 pages -- February 29, 2008

Infectious Default Model with Recovery and Continuous Limits
by Ayaka Sakata of the University of Tokyo,
Masato Hisakado of Standard & Poor's, and
Shintaro Mori of Kitasato University
(547K PDF) -- 14 pages -- January 20, 2008

Systemic Credit Risk: What is the market telling us?
by Vineer Bhansali of PIMCO,
Robert Gingrich of PIMCO, and
Francis A. Longstaff of the University of California, Los Angeles
(145K PDF) -- 19 pages -- January 2008

The Core Factor: A fast and accurate factor reduction technique
by Christoff Gössl of Unicredit Markets and Investment Banking
(236K PDF) -- 15 pages -- December 2007

Default Contagion in Large Homogeneous Portfolios
by Alexander Herbertsson of Göteborg University
(1,512K PDF) -- 24 pages -- November 10, 2007

Modelling Default Contagion using Multivariate Phase-type Distributions
by Alexander Herbertsson of Göteborg University
(862K PDF) -- 36 pages -- November 10, 2007

Modeling Correlated Defaults: First passage model under stochastic volatility
by Jean-Pierre Fouque of the University of California at Santa Barbara,
Brian Wignall of the University of California at Santa Barbara, and
Xianwen Zhou of Lehman Brothers
(280K PDF) -- 32 pages -- November 6, 2007

Firm Value, Diversified Capital Assets, and Credit Risk: Towards a Theory of Default Correlation
by Lars Grüne of the Universität of Bayreuth,
Willi Semmler of the New School for Social Research, New York, and
Lucas Bernard of the New School for Social Research & Long Island University
(495K PDF) -- 32 pages -- November 4, 2007

Comparison Results for Exchangeable Credit Risk Portfolios
by Areski Cousin of the University of Lyon, and
Jean-Paul Laurent of the University of Lyon & BNP Paribas
(318K PDF) -- 23 pages -- March 5, 2008

Linking Global Economic Dynamics to a South African Specific Credit Portfolio
by Albert H. De Wet of FirstRand Bank, South Africa, and
Reneé Van Eyden of the University of Pretoria
(1,169K PDF) -- 36 pages -- September 2007

Asset Correlations and Credit Portfolio Risk: An empirical analysis
by Klaus Düllmann of Deutsche Bundesbank,
Martin Scheicher of the European Central Bank, and
Christian Schmieder of the European Investment Bank
(414K PDF) -- 52 pages -- September 2007

Dependency without Copulas or Ellipticity
by William T. Shaw of King's College London
(1,690K PDF) -- 10 pages -- September 2007

Study of Dependence for Some Stochastic Processes
by Tomasz Bielecki of the Illinois Institute of Technology,
Jacek Jakubowski of the University of Warsaw,
Andrea Vidozzi of the Illinois Institute of Technology, and
Luca Vidozzi of the Illinois Institute of Technology
(254K PDF) -- 16 pages -- August 14, 2007

Factor Models for Credit Correlation
by Stewart Inglis of Merrill Lynch, and
Alex Lipton of Merrill Lynch
(228K PDF) - 19 pages -- June 25, 2007

Migration Dependence Among the US Business Sectors
by Oussama Chakroun of HEC Montréal
(772K PDF) -- 31 pages -- June 20, 2007

The Underlying Dynamics of Credit Correlations
by Arthur Berd of BlueMountain Capital Management,
Robert Engle of the New York University, and
Artem Voronov of the New York University
(445K PDF) -- 37 pages -- April 2007

Delayed Default Dependency and Default Contagion
by B.S. Balakrishna -- Unaffiliated
(169K PDF) -- 13 pages -- May 15, 2007

Copula Methods vs Canonical Multivariate Distributions: the multivariate Student T distribution with general degrees of freedom
by William T. Shaw of King's College London, and
K.T. Amber Lee of King's College London
(484K PDF) -- 25 pages -- April 24, 2007

Simulation Based Approach for Measuring Concentration Risk
by Joocheol Kim of Yonsei University, and
Duyeol Lee of Yonsei University
(256K PDF) -- 15 pages -- April 2007

Confidence Sets for Asset Correlation
by Delphine Cassart of the Universite Libre de Bruxelles,
Carlos Castro of the Universite Libre de Bruxelles,
Ronny Langendries of Dexia SA, and
Thomas Alderweireld of Dexia SA
(360K PDF) -- 30 pages -- February 2007

Common Failings: How Corporate Defaults are Correlated
by Sanjiv R. Das of Santa Clara University,
Darrell Duffie of Stanford University,
Nikunj Kapadia of the University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and
Leandro Saita of Lehman Brothers
(255K PDF) -- 26 pages -- February 2007

Estimating Credit Contagion in a Standard Factor Model
by Daniel Rösch of the University of Regensburg, and
Birker Winterfeldt of the University of Regensburg
(253K PDF) -- 16 pages -- January 30, 2007

Is Firm Interdependence within Industries Important for Portfolio Credit Risk?
by Kenneth Carling of IFAU, Uppsala, Sweden, & Dalarna University,
Lars Rönnegård of Uppsala University, and
Kasper Roszbach of Sveriges Riksbank
(388K PDF) -- 33 pages -- January 22, 2007

Beyond the Gaussian Copula: Stochastic and local correlation
by Xavier Burtschell of BNP Paribas,
Jon Gregory of Barclays Capital, and
Jean-Paul Laurent of ISFA Actuarial School, University of Lyon
(445K PDF) -- 27 pages -- January 2007

The Importance of Simultaneous Jumps in Default Correlation (job market paper)
by Pouyan Mashayekh Ahangarani of the University of Southern California
(176K PDF) -- 26 pages -- January 2007

Extending Gaussian Copula with Jumps to Match Correlation Smile
by Geng Xu of Wachovia Securities
(192K PDF) -- 8 pages -- December 18, 2006

Coping with Copulas
by Thorsten Schmidt of the University of Leipzig
(638K PDF) -- 23 pages -- December 2006

Asset Correlations: A Literature Review and Analysis of the Impact of Dependent Loss Given Defaults
by Andrew Chernih of X-Act Consulting,
Steven Vanduffel of Katholieke Universiteit Leuven & Universiteit van Amsterdam, and
Luc Henrard of Fortis Bank & Universite Catholique de Louvain
(479K PDF) -- 15 pages -- November 6, 2006

Credit Contagion and Credit Risk
by Jonathan Hatchett of Hymans Robertson LLP, and
Reimer Kühn of King's College London
(165K PDF) -- 11 pages -- September 20, 2006

Correlated Default Risk
by Sanjiv R. Das of Santa Clara University
Laurence Freed of Bear Sterns,
Gary Geng of Amaranth Group, Inc., and
Nikunj Kapadia of the University of Massachusetts
(803K PDF) -- 26 pages -- September 2006

Perturbed Gaussian Copula
by Jean-Pierre Fouque of the University of California, Santa Barbara, and
Xianwen Zhou of North Carolina State University
(1,081K PDF) -- 15 pages -- August 8, 2006

Competition and Diversification Effects in Supply Chains with Supplier Default Risk
by Volodymyr Babich of the University of Michigan,
Apostolos N. Burnetas of Case Western Reserve University, and
Peter H. Ritchken of Case Western Reserve University
(447K PDF) -- 39 pages -- June 10, 2006

Copulas from Infinitely Divisible Distributions: Applications to Credit Value at Risk
by Thomas Moosbrucker of the University of Cologne
(274K PDF) -- 26 pages -- June 2006

Correlated Binomial Models and Correlation Structures
by Masato Hisakado of Standard & Poor's,
Kenji Kitsukawa of Keio University, and
Shintaro Mori of Kitasato University
(179K PDF) -- 12 pages -- May 22, 2006

Dynamic Credit Correlation Modelling
by Claudio Albanese of the Imperial College London,
Oliver Chen of the National University of Singapore,
Antonio Dalessandro of the Imperial College London, and
Alicia Vidler of Merrill Lynch
(583K PDF) -- 22 pages -- May 12, 2006

Credit Contagion and Aggregate Losses
by Kay Giesecke of Cornell University, and
Stefan Weber of the Technische Universität Berlin
(374K PDF) -- 27 pages -- May 2006

Credit Risk Models I: Default Correlation in Intensity Models
by Abel Elizalde of CEMFI & Universidad Pública de Navarra
(596K PDF) -- 59 pages -- April 2006

Infinite-mean Models and the LDA for Operational Risk
by Johanna Nešlehová of RiskLab, ETH Zurich,
Paul Embrechts of ETH Zurich, and
Valérie Chavez-Demoulin of ETH Zurich
(292K PDF) -- 23 pages -- Spring 2006

Effects of Economic Interactions on Credit Risk
by Jonathan P.L. Hatchett of RIKEN BSI, Japan, and
Reimer Kühn of King's College London
(401K PDF) -- 21 pages -- March 2006

Tools for sampling Multivariate Archimedean Copulas
by Mario R. Melchiori of the Universidad Nacional del Litoral
(673K PDF) -- 8 pages -- March 2006

Extreme VaR Scenarios in Higher Dimensions
by Paul Embrechts of ETH Zürich, and
Andrea Höing of ETH Zürich
(1,716K PDF) -- 16 pages -- February 10, 2006

Credit Chains and the Propagation of Financial Distress
by Frederic Boissay of the European Central Bank
(685K PDF) -- 34 pages -- January 2006

New Families of Copulas Based on Periodic Functions
by Aurélien Alfonsi of Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées, and
Damiano Brigo of Banca IMI
(162K PDF) -- 17 pages -- December 19, 2005

Do We Need to Worry About Credit Risk Correlation?
by Abel Elizalde of CEMFI & Universidad Pública de Navarra
(395K PDF) -- 41 pages -- December 2005

Correlated Defaults in Intensity-Based Models
by Fan Yu of the University of California, Irvine
(277K PDF) -- 24 pages -- November 8, 2005

Misspecified Copulas in Credit Risk Models - How Good Is Gaussian
by Alfred Hamerle of the University of Regensburg, and
Daniel Rösch of the University of Regensburg
(605K PDF) -- 29 pages -- October 2005

Probability of Default as a Function of Correlation: The problem of non-uniqueness
by Toby Daglish of the University of Iowa, and
Wei Li of the University of Iowa
(198K PDF) -- 18 pages -- September 26, 2005

A Simple Model of Credit Contagion
by Daniel Egloff of Zürcher Kantonalbank,
Markus Leippold of the University of Zurich, and
Paolo Vanini of the University of Southern Switzerland & Zürcher Kantonalbank
(1,544K PDF) -- 53 pages -- September 22, 2005

Dynamic Credit Correlation Modelling
by Claudio Albanese of the Imperial College London,
Oliver Chen of the National University of Singapore, and
Antonio Dalessandro of the Imperial College London
(593K PDF) -- 19 pages -- August 18, 2005

Remarks on Pricing Correlation Products
by Harald Skarke of Bank Austria Creditanstalt
(77K PDF) -- 6 pages -- July 17, 2005

Credit Risk Assessment via Copulas: Association Invariance and Risk Neutrality
by Elisa Luciano of the University of Turin & ICER
(257K PDF) -- 29 pages -- July 12, 2005

The Impact of Stock Returns Volatility on Credit Default Swap Rates: A copula study
by Fathi Abid of the University of Sfax, and
Nader Naifar of the University of Sfax
(304PDF) -- 23 pages -- May 2005

An Infinite Factor Model for Credit Risk
by Thorsten Schmidt of the University of Leipzig
(250K PDF) -- 27 pages -- May 2005

Default Correlation in Reduced-Form Models
by Fan Yu of the University of California, Irvine
(192K PDF) -- 18 pages -- April 16, 2005

Macroeconomic Dynamics and Credit Risk: A Global Perspective
by M. Hashem Pesaran of the University of Cambridge & USC,
Til Schuermann of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York & Wharton University,
Björn-Jakob Treutler of Mercer Oliver Wyman & WHU, and
Scott M. Weiner of the University of Oxford
(921K) -- 60 pages -- April 12, 2005

Non-parametric Estimation of Elliptical Copulae With Application to Credit Risk
by Krassimir Kostadinov of the Munich University of Technology
(458K PDF) -- 37 pages -- April 10, 2005

Factor Copulas: Totally External Defaults
by Martijn van der Voort of ABN AMRO bank & Erasmus University Rotterdam
(246K PDF) -- 21 pages -- April 8, 2005

A Non-Gaussian Panel Time Series Model for Estimating and Decomposing Default Risk
by Robert J. Daniels of KPMG Mexico,
Siem Jan Koopman of Vrije Universiteit and Tingergen Institute Amsterdam, and
André Lucas of Tingergen Institute Amsterdam
(651K PDF) -- 32 pages -- January 31, 2005

Default Risk and Diversification: Theory and Empirical Implications
by Robert A. Jarrow of Cornell University,
David Lando of the University of Copenhagen, and
Fan Yu of the University of California, Irvine
(197K PDF) -- 26 pages -- January 2005

Tails of Credit Default Portfolios
by Gabriel Kuhn of the Munich University of Technology
(355K PDF) -- 32 pages -- December 21, 2004

Cyclical Correlations, Credit Contagion, and Portfolio Losses
by Kay Giesecke of Cornell University, and
Stefan Weber of Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin
(351K PDF) -- 28 pages -- December 2004

Credit Risk Enhancement in a Network of Interdependent Firms
by Peter Neu of Dresdner Bank AG, and
Reimer Kühn of King's College London
(280K PDF) -- 17 pages -- November 2004

Correlation at First Sight
by Andrew Friend of ABN AMRO, and
Ebbe Rogge of ABN AMRO & London and Imperial College
(276K PDF) -- 21 pages -- October 28, 2004

Default Correlation: From Definition to Proposed Solutions
by Douglas Lucas of USB
(300K PDF) -- 33 pages -- August 11, 2004

Double Default Correlation
by Martijn van der Voort of Erasmus University Rotterdam & ABN AMRO
(478K PDF) -- 26 pages -- July 17, 2004

Correlated Random Walks and the Joint Survival Probability
by Mark Wise of the California Institute of Technology, and
Vineer Bhansali of Pacific Investment Management Company (PIMCO)
(144K PDF) -- 13 pages -- July 7, 2004

Correlated Default with Incomplete Information
by Kay Giesecke of Cornell University
(339K PDF) -- 25 pages -- July 2004

The Implications of Implied Correlation
by Roy Mashal of Lehman Brothers,
Marco Naldi of Lehman Brothers, and
Gaurav Tejwani of Lehman Brothers
(221K PDF) -- 5 pages -- July 2004

Correlated Defaults and the Valuation of Defaultable Securities
by Fan Yu of the University of California, Irvine
(297K PDF) -- 30 pages -- April 1, 2004

In the Core of Correlation
by Jon Gregory of BNP Paribas, and
Jean-Paul Laurent of the University of Lyon & BNP Paribas
(403K PDF) -- 12 pages -- April 2004

Correlated Default Processes: A Criterion-Based Copula Approach
by Sanjiv R. Das of Santa Clara University, and
Gary Geng of Amaranth Group Inc.
(220K PDF) -- 27 pages -- Q2 2004

Modelling Correlations in Portfolio Credit Risk
by Bernd Rosenow of the Universität zu Köln,
Rafael Weissbach of the Universität Dortmund, and
Frank Altrock of WestLB AG
(141K PDF) -- 5 pages -- March 31, 2004

Sampling from Archimedean Copulas
by Niall Whelan of ScotiaBank
(271K PDF) -- 29 pages -- March 11, 2004

Pricing Swap Credit Risk with Copulas
by Umberto Cherubini of the University of Bologna
(204K PDF) -- 15 pages -- January 6, 2004

Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk
by Siem Jan Koopman of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam & the Tinbergen Institute, and
André Lucas of the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam & the Tinbergen Institute
(250K PDF) -- 23 pages -- December 24, 2003

Information-driven Default Contagion
by Philipp J. Schönbucher of ETH Zürich
(351K PDF) -- 27 pages -- December 2003

The Grouped t-copula with an Application to Credit Risk
by Stéphane Daul of Swiss Re,
Enrico De Giorgi of RiskLab & ETH Zürich,
Filip Lindskog of RiskLab & ETH Zürich, and
Alexander McNeil of ETH Zürich
(182K PDF) -- 7 pages -- November 2003

Determinants of the Asset Correlations of German Corporations and Implications for Regulatory Capital
by Klaus Düllmann of Deutsche Bundesbank, and
Harald Scheule of the University of Regensburg
(254K PDF) --27 pages -- October 2003

Extreme Events and Multi-Name Credit Derivatives
by Roy Mashal of Lehman Brothers Inc.,
Marco Naldi of Lehman Brothers Inc., and
Assaf Zeevi of Columbia University
(334K PDF) -- 32 pages -- September 9, 2003

Benchmarking Asset Correlations
by Alfred Hamerle of University of Regensburg,
Thilo Liebig of Deutsche Bundesbank, and
Daniel Rösch of University of Regensburg
(306K PDF) -- 27 pages -- September 2003

Which Archimedean Copula is the Right One?
by Mario R. Melchiori of the Universidad Nacional del Litoral
(486K PDF) -- 21 pages -- September 2003

Dependent Defaults in Models of Portfolio Credit Risk
by Rüdiger Frey of the University of Leipzig, and
Alexander J. McNeil of ETH Zentrum
(386K PDF) -- 27 pages -- June 16, 2003

A Simple Exponential Model for Dependent Defaults
by Kay Giesecke of Cornell University
(213K PDF) -- 20 pages -- December 2003

How Does Systematic Risk Impact US Credit Spreads? A Copula Study
by Hayette Gatfaoui of the University Paris I - Panthéon-Sorbonne
(547K PDF) -- 27 pages -- June 2003

Successive Correlated Defaults: Pricing trends and simulation
by Kay Giesecke of Cornell University
(255K PDF) -- 28 pages -- April 30, 2003

Modeling Default Dependence with Threshold Models
by Ludger Overbeck of Deutsche Bank AG, and
Wolfgang Schmidt of Hochschule für Bankwirtschaft
(229K PDF) -- 17 pages -- March 18, 2003

Dependent Defaults and Credit Migrations
by Tomasz R. Bielecki of The Northeastern Illinois University, and
Marek Rutkowski of the Warsaw University of Technology
(296K PDF) -- 25 pages -- March 11, 2003

Correlations and Business Cycles of Credit Risk: Evidence from Bankruptcies in Germany
by Daniel Rösch of the University of Regensburg
(293K PDF) -- 30 pages -- November 2002

Beyond Correlation: Extreme Co-movements Between Financial Assets
by Roy Mashal of Columbia University, and
Assaf Zeevi of Columbia University
(754K PDF) -- 48 pages -- October 14, 2002

Estimating Default Correlations from Short Panels of Credit Rating Performance Data
by Michael B. Gordy of the Federal Reserve Board, and
Erik Heitfield of Federal Reserve Board
(165K PDF) -- 30 pages -- January 29, 2002

Copula-Dependent Default Risk in Intensity Models
by Philipp J. Schönbucher of Bonn University, and
Dirk Schubert of Bonn University
(299K PDF) -- 30 pages -- December 2001

Modelling Default Correlation in Bond Portfolios
by Mark Davis of Vienna University of Technology, and
Violet Lo of Tokyo-Mitsubishi International, plc.
(203K PDF) -- 11 pages -- October 2, 2001

Default Probabilities and Default Correlations
by Ulrich Erlenmaier of the University of Heidelberg, and
Hans Gersbach of the University of Heidelberg
(568K PDF) -- 46 pages -- October 2001

Correlation of Default Events: Some New Tools
by Salih Neftci of the University of New York and the University of Reading
(175K PDF) -- 14 pages -- October 2001

Modelling Dependence with Copulas and Applications to Risk Management
by Paul Embrechts of the Department of Mathematics ETHZ,
Filip Lindskog of the Department of Mathematics ETHZ, and
Alexander McNeil of the Department of Mathematics ETHZ
(538K PDF) -- 50 pages -- September 10, 2001

Modelling Dependent Defaults
by Rüdiger Frey of the University of Zurich, and
Alexander J. McNeil of the Federal Institute of Technology
(490K PDF) -- 30 pages -- August 13, 2001

Models of Joint Defaults in Credit Risk Management: An Assessment
by Ulrich Erlenmaier of the University of Heidelberg
(702K PDF) -- 55 pages -- July 2001

Linear Correlation Estimation
by Filip Lindskog of ETH-Zentrum
(625K PDF) -- 35 pages -- December 11, 2000

Copula from the Limit of a Multivariate Binary Model
by Dennis Wong of Bank of America Corporation
(154K PDF) -- 10 pages -- December 11, 2000

What Are the Sources of Country and Industry Diversification?
by Kent Hargis of Goldman Sachs, and
Jianping (J.P.) Mei of New York University
(161K PDF) -- 32 pages -- April 21, 2001

Modelling Dependencies in Credit Risk Management
by Mark A. Nyfeler of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich
(3,178K PDF) -- 78 pages -- November 23, 2000

Excessive Variation of Risk Factor Correlations and Volatilities
by Salih N. Neftci CUNY & the University of Reading, and
Hans Genberg the Graduate Institute, Geneva
(1,301K PDF) -- 16 pages -- July 2000

Valuing Credit Default Swaps II: Modeling Default Correlations
by John Hull of the University of Toronto, and
Alan White of the University of Toronto
(308K PDF) -- 26 pages -- April 2000

Evaluating "Correlation Breakdowns" During Periods of Market Volatility
by Mico Loretan of the Federal Reserve Board, and
William B. English of the Federal Reserve Board
(642K PDF) -- 33 pages -- February 2000

On Default Correlation: A copula function approach
by David X. Li of The RiskMetrics Group
(122K PDF) -- 31 pages -- September 1999

Correlation and Dependence in Risk Management: Properties and Pitfalls
by Paul Embrechts of ETH-Zentrum,
Alexander McNeil of ETH-Zentrum, and
Daniel Straumann of ETH-Zentrum
(533K PDF) -- 37 pages -- August 9, 1999

Integrating Correlations
by Peter Bürgisser of the Universität Paterborn,
Alexandre Kurth of the Universität Basel,
Armin Wagner of UBS, and
Michael Wolf of UBS
(86K PDF) -- 7 pages -- July 1999

On Approximation of Copulas
by Tomasz Kulpa of the University of Silesia
(140K PDF) -- 11 pages -- June 1999

Simulating Correlated Defaults
by Darrell Duffie of Stanford University, and
Kenneth Singleton of Stanford University
(390K PDF) -- 47 pages -- May 21, 1999

Correlation: Pitfalls and Alternatives
by Paul Embrechts of the ETH Zentrum,
Alexander McNeil of the ETH Zentrum, and
Daniel Straumann of the ETH Zentrum
(302K PDF) -- 8 pages -- March 1999

Correlation - the hidden risk in Collateralized Debt Obligations
by Richard K. Skora of Skora & Company Inc.
(35K PDF) -- 5 pages -- November 21, 1998

Aggregation of Correlated Risk Portfolios: Models & Algorithms
by Shaun S. Wang for the CAS Committee on Theory of Risk
(1,215K PDF) -- 50 pages -- November 1998

Default Correlation: An Analytical Result
by Chunsheng Zhou of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors
(245K PDF) -- 30 pages -- May 1, 1997

Additional References (sorted by author)

Brunnermeier, Markus, Laurent Clerq, Martin Scheicher, "Assessing contagion risks in the CDS market", Banque de France - Financial Stability Review, No. 17, (April 2013), pp. 123-134.

Carty, Lea V., "Corporate Credit-Risk Dynamics", Financial Analysts Journal, Vol. 56, No. 4, (July/August 2000), pp. 67-81.

Castro, Carlos, "Confidence Sets for Asset Correlations in Portfolio Credit Risk", Revista de Economía del Rosario, Vol. 15, No. 1, (June 2012), pp. 19-58.

Cowan, Adrian M., Charles D. Cowan, "Default Correlation: An empirical investigation of a subprime lender", Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 28, No. 4, (April 2004), pp. 753-771.

Das, Sanjiv R., Gifford Fong, and Gary Geng, "Impact of Correlated Default Risk on Credit Portfolios", Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 11, No. 3, (December 2001), pp. 9-19.

Davis, Mark H.A. and Violet Lo, "Infectious Defaults", Quantitative Finance, Vol. 1, No. 4, (April 2001), pp. 382-387.

Düllmann, Klaus and Nancy Masschelein, "A Tractable Model to Measure Sector Concentration Risk in Credit Portfolios", Journal of Financial Services Research, Vol. 32, No. 1, (October 2007), pp. 55-79.

Embrechts, Paul, Andrea Höing, and Alessandro Juri, "Using Copulae to Bound the Value-at-Risk for Functions of Dependent Risks", Finance and Stochastics, Vol. 7, No. 2, (April 2003), 145-167.

Frye, Jon, "Correlation and Asset Correlation in the Structural Portfolio Model", Journal of Credit Risk, Vol. 4, No. 2, (Summer 2008), pp. 75-96.

Gagliardini, Patrick, Christian S. Gouriéroux, "Migration Correlation: Definition and efficient estimation", Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 29, No. 4, (April 2005), pp. 865-894.

Gersbach, Hans and Alexander Lipponer, "Firm Defaults and the Correlation Effect", European Financial Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, (September 2003), pp. 361-378.

Giesecke, Kay, Baeho Kim, "Systemic Risk: What Defaults are Telling Us", Management Science, Vol. 57, No. 8, (August 2011), pp. 1387-1405.

Long, Kete, "The Fallacy of an Overly Simplified Asymptotic Single-risk-factor Model", Journal of Risk Model Validation, Vol. 5, No. 4, (Winter 2011/12), pp. 27-48.

Lucas, Douglas J., "Default Correlation and Credit Analysis", Journal of Fixed Income, Vol. 4, No. 4, (March 1995), pp. 76-87.

Mahoney, James M., "Risk Management of Correlation Products", European Financial Management, Vol. 3, No. 2, (July 1997), pp. 155-174.

Marshall, Albert W. and Ingram Olkin, "A Multivariate Exponential Distribution", Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 62, No. 317, (March 1967), pp. 30-44.

Pianeti, Riccardo, Rosella Giacometti, Valentina Acerbis, "Estimating the Joint Probability of Default Using Credit Default Swap and Bond Data", Journal of Fixed Income, (Winter 2012), Vol. 21, No. 3: pp. 44-58.

Stevenson, Bruce G. and Michael W. Fadil, "Modern Portfolio Theory: Can it Work for Commercial Loans?", Commercial Lending Review, Vol. 10, No. 2, (Spring 1995), pp. 4-12.

Tasche, Dirk, "Measuring Sectoral Diversification in an Asymptotic Multi-factor Framework", Journal of Credit Risk, Vol. 2, No. 3, (Fall 2006), pp. 33-55.

Tian, Suhua, Yunhong Yang, Gaiyan Zhang, "Bank Capital, Interbank Contagion, and Bailout Policy", Fourthcoming in: Journal of Banking & Finance.

Valuzis, Mantas, "On the Probabilities of Correlated Defaults: a First Passage Time Approach", Nonlinear Analysis: Modelling and Control, Vol. 13, No. 1, (March 2008), pp. 117-133.

Zhou, Chunsheng, "An Analysis of Default Correlations and Multiple Defaults", Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 14, No. 2, (January 2001), pp. 555-576.

 

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