Gersbach, Hans and Alexander Lipponer, "Firm Defaults and the Correlation Effect", European Financial Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, (September 2003), pp. 361-378.
Abstract: We examine how the correlations of bank loan defaults depend on the correlations of asset returns and how correlations and diversification are affected by macroeconomic risks. We highlight the main properties of the relationship between asset returns and default correlations, illustrating how adverse macroeconomic shocks raise not only the likelihood of defaults, but also the correlation of defaults. The latter effect, called correlation effect, may account for more than 50% of the increase in the credit risk.
Keywords: credit portfolio management, default correlations, macroeconomic shocks, correlation effect, Monte-Carlo simulation.
Previously titled: The Correlation Effect