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Fitch Quantitative Financial Research (QFR)

In Rememberance: World Trade Center (WTC)

International Banks’ Ratings with an Indicator Variable for Country Effects

by Roman Matousek of London Metropolitan University,
Chris Stewart of London Metropolitan University, and
Gary van Vuuren of Fitch Ratings

May 2009

Abstract: Using data on international banks’ ratings we find that banks with a greater capitalisation, larger assets, and a higher return on assets have higher bank ratings. Further, the more liquid bank the greater is its rating, the larger is the ratio of its operating expenses to total operating income the lower is its rating and the more recent is the date that the rating is made the lower is the rating of the bank. There is also a strong country effect on bank ratings such that banks from certain countries have systematically higher ratings than others. The addition of this variable substantially raises the model’s accuracy at predicting a bank’s rating which is arguably the major challenge of modelling ratings. The inclusion and modelling of country-effects represents a notable innovation in this field of research.

JEL Classification: C25, C51, C52, G21.

Keywords: International bank ratings, ordered choice models, country indicator variable.

Previously titled: Ordered Choice Models of International Banks’ Ratings with an Indicator Variable for Country Effects

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Download paper (220K PDF) 19 pages

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