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In Rememberance: World Trade Center (WTC)

An EVT Primer for Credit Risk

by Valérie Chavez-Demoulin of EPF Lausanne, and
Paul Embrechts of ETH Zurich

May 25, 2009

Abstract: We review, from the point of view of credit risk management, classical Extreme Value Theory in its one–dimensional (EVT) as well as more–dimensional (MEVT) setup. The presentation is highly coloured by the current economic crisis against which background we discuss the (non–)usefulness of certain methodological developments. We further present an outlook on current and future research for the modelling of extremes and rare event probabilities.

Keywords: Basel II, Copula, Credit Risk, Dependence Modelling, Diversification, Extreme Value Theory, Regular Variation, Risk Aggregation, Risk Concentration, Subprime Crisis.

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Related reading: Credit Risk Modeling and Valuation: An Introduction

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