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Castrén, Olli, Stéphane Dées, Fadi Zaher, "Stress-testing Euro Area Corporate Default Probabilities using a Global Macroeconomic Model", Journal of Financial Stability, Vol. 6, No. 2, (June 2010), pp. 64-78.

Abstract: We analyse the behaviour of euro area corporate sector probabilities of default under a wide range of domestic and global macro-financial shocks. Using the Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) model and constructing a linking satellite equation for firm-level Expected Default Frequencies (EDFs) we show that, at the aggregate level, the median EDFs react most to shocks to GDP, exchange rate, oil prices and equity prices. Intuitive variations to these results occur when sector-level median EDFs are considered. The satellite-GVAR model emerges as a useful tool for linking global macro-financial scenarios with micro-level information on expected defaults.

JEL Classification: C32, E17, F47, H81, G33.

Keywords: Global VAR, Expected Default Frequencies, Corporate sector credit risk, Macroess-testing.

Previously titled: Global Macro-financial Shocks and Expected Default in the Euro Area

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