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| A Survey of Cyclical Effects in Credit Risk Measurement Models by Linda Allen of the University of New York, and January 2003 Introduction: It has long been recognized that banking is a procyclical business. That is, banks tend to contract their lending activity when business turns down because of their concern about loan quality and repayment probability. This exacerbates the economic downturn as credit constrained businesses and individuals cut back on their real investment activity. In contrast, banks expand their lending activity during boom periods, thereby contributing to a possible overheating of the economy that may transform an economic expansion into an inflationary spiral. Books Referenced in this Paper: (what is this?)
The interested reader may note that Gupton and Stein[2002] developed a predictive model of recoveries. This model, LossCalc™, is integrated in the Moody's|KMV Portfolio Manager™. This information would supplement §4.2 of the above work.
Gupton and Stein[2002] found that LGD is forecast by four time-series that measure aggregate default intensity, the health of both the broad economy and the debt markets, and aggregate default expectation (see Table 1). In the LossCalc framework, these macro factors account for 26% of the explained variance in LGD (see Figure 4). [Home] [Other Credit Risk Papers]  |  
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