Jorion, Philippe, "Bayes-Stein Estimation for Portfolio Analysis", Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Vol. 21, No. 3, (September 1986), pp. 279-292.

Abstract: In portfolio analysis, uncertainty about parameter values leads to suboptimal portfolio choices. The resulting loss in the investor's utility is a function of the particular estimator chosen for expected returns. So, this is a problem of simultaneous estimation of normal means under a well-specified loss function. In this situation, as Stein has shown, the classical sample mean is inadmissible. This paper presents a simple empirical Bayes estimator that should outperform the simple mean in the context of a portfolio. Simulation analysis shows that these Bayes-Stein estimators provide significant gains in portfolio selection problems.

Books Referenced in this paper:  (what is this?)

Download paper (1,186K PDF) 15 pages