JEL Classification C22 "Univariate: Time-Series Models"These are all the papers that have a JEL assignment (not all authors have given JEL codes to their papers) and that include the C22 classification. (sorted by date) Are CDS Spreads Predictable? An analysis of linear and non-linear forecasting models by Davide Avino of University of Reading, and Ogonna Nneji of University of Reading (501K PDF) -- 25 pages -- November 23, 2012 Volatility, Correlation and Tails for Systemic Risk Measurement by Christian T. Brownlees of the New York University, and Robert Engle of the New York University (1,069K PDF) -- 37 pages -- June 2011 Ebnöther, Silvan, Paolo Vanini, "Credit Portfolios: What defines risk horizons and risk measurement?", Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 31, No. 12, (December 2007), pp. 3663-3679. Are Credit Default Swap Spreads Market Driven by Hayette Gatfaoui of Groupe ESC Rouen (378K PDF) -- 8 pages -- July 2007 Estimating the Structural Credit Risk Model When Equity Prices Are Contaminated by Trading Noises by Jin-Chuan Duan of the National University of Singapore & the University of Toronto, and Andras Fulop of ESSEC Business School, France (225K PDF) -- 30 pages -- July 2007 Lucas, André, Pieter Klaassen, "Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk", Journal of Banking & Finance, Vol. 30, No. 1, (January 2006), pp. 23-35. On the Equivalence of the KMV and Maximum Likelihood Methods for Structural Credit Risk Models by Jin-Chuan Duan of the University of Toronto, Geneviève Gauthier of HEC, and Jean-Guy Simonato of HEC (256K PDF) -- 22 pages -- June 15, 2005 Estimating Merton's Model by Maximum Likelihood with Survivorship Consideration by Jin-Chuan Duan of the University of Toronto Geneviève Gauthier of HEC (Montreal) Jean-Guy Simonato of HEC (Montreal) Sophia Zaanoun of HEC (Montreal) (333K PDF) -- 25 pages -- May 10, 2005 Determants of Euro Term Structure of Credit Spreads by Astrid Van Landschoot of National Bank of Belgium & Ghent University (1,204K PDF) -- 58 pages -- October 2004 Identifying Threshold Effects in Credit Risk Stress Testing by J. Giancarlo Gasha of the International Monetary Fund, and R. Armando Morales of the International Monetary Fund (297K PDF) -- 18 pages -- August 2004 Estimating Merton's Model by Maximum Likelihood with Survivorship Consideration by Jin-Chuan Duan of the University of Toronto Geneviève Gauthier of HEC (Montreal) Jean-Guy Simonato of HEC (Montreal) Sophia Zaanoun of HEC (Montreal) (391K PDF) -- 25 pages -- October 2003 An Econometric Model of Credit Spreads with Rebalancing, ARCH and Jump Effects by Herman Bierens of Pennsylvania State University, and Jing-zhi Huang of Pennsylvania State University & New York University (422K PDF) -- 42 pages -- April 8, 2003 An Empirical Investigation in Credit Spread Indices by Jean-Luc Prigent of the Université de Cergy-Pontoise, Olivier Renault of the London School of Economics, and Olivier Scaillet of the Université Catholique de Louvain (869K PDF) -- 36 pages -- February 2001
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